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The European Elections

Between 6 and 9 June, around 400 million European citizens will be called to the polls to elect the new Parliament.

The European elections, which take place every five years, will see Italians vote on 8 and 9 June. This is a crucial political appointment, which monopolizes the debate between the parties. This is why it is necessary to clarify what is at stake and try to analyze the potential outcomes, the results that could emerge from the polls of the 27 member countries. Obviously, the future is only probable, but we researchers are, by profession, friends of probability.

The seats in the European Parliament are 720 and at the moment they are distributed in this way: 420 for the majority, made up of People’s Party, Socialists and Macronians; 191 for the sovereignist and right-wing conservative formations; 109 for environmentalist and left-wing parties. As can be seen from the graphs on the side, the survey data indicate that a slight shift in the balance to the right is probable. Light because the government area would drop from 420 to 398 seats: the three parties that currently lead in Brussels would always have the absolute majority of seats (55%) and would obviously be able to govern.

Nicola Piepoli for il Giornale